Fwiw, You're leaning against the tape — Brent down 19.6% this week, so 5.0% to $78.6 needs the trend to flip first.

Give it room and this is a different call; pinned to the date it's a coin flip on timing.

i doubt this one — inventories are building against soft demand

Brent -18.7% on the week at $75.71, 3.8% from $78.6.

low-key, calling it, this hits — the seasonal demand window is just opening 👀

i actually like this one. asymmetric if you're early, but $75.8 can flush before it works — needs a stop. a firmer dollar is a direct headwind the chart ignores. we’ll see how it ages.