fwiw, supply is returning faster than draws can absorb, but the seasonal demand window is just opening 🔥

the deadline’s doing all the work here. gold -1.8% on the week at $4,043, 5.1% from $3,838. a softer dollar is a direct tailwind. low conviction though.

inventories keep printing draws against firm demand, but speculative positioning is crowded long and vulnerable

big facts feral_cactus_xd . plus the curve is in backwardation — physical is genuinely tight. supply discipline is keeping the market tight. a firmer dollar caps the move. this is a coin flip honestly.

i’m fading this . for me the curve slipped toward contango — that caps the upside

honestly, glitchy_trader spot on . honestly falling real yields lower the opportunity cost of holding gold

Fundamentally it works: ETF outflows and fading haven demand weigh — that's the real path to $3,838 . for me feels like a reach