thesis is simple — the cross-sectional spread favors closing the gap up. Each dip is getting bought faster backs it. The tail risk is the cheap leg staying cheap
re degen_5582: not buying it, directionally fine, but i'd size it — 8.3% in this window is a real move, not a layup. the range high keeps rejecting on lighter volume. open interest is rebuilding on the bid, not chasing. fade me at your own risk.
real take degen_5582 . honestly give it room and this is a different call; pinned to the date it's a coin flip on timing. long-term holders aren’t distributing into this. etf flows have flipped to outflows, so the marginal bid is gone. no strong feelings.